Bayes Theorem Examples
Bayes Theorem Examples
Overview
Discover how to use Bayes' Theorem for real world applications like weather prediction, criminal investigation, blackjack games, and countless others! Picture this... You've been feeling sick for a couple days. You have a job interview on Thursday. Today is Monday, and you want to make sure you're healthy by Thursday...but you can't afford the time or cost of seeing a doctor before then. What are the odds of being up and running by Thursday? Do they get better if you've just started a new health kick? Or do they stay the same? Or perhaps... ...you notice your good ol' dog Spike walking clumsily and think he may be going blind. However you can't take him to a vet immediately...but you still want to know what the odds are that something's wrong with his eyes. So how do you determine this? These questions and countless others can be better answered when you apply Bayes' Theorem. To simplify it, Bayes' Theorem is the method by which you use to determine the probability of an event based on conditions that may be related to an event. So if you want to determine if your dog is sick and you know his breed is a golden retriever...well you could possibly use that information to assess the likely odds of him being sick! In this guide you'll see example after example of Bayes' Theorem being put into practice. You'll also see how each conclusion is arrived at with summation notation and basic equations. BUT...the purpose of this book isn't just to throw equations at you. It's to help you get an intuitive feel for the probability of an outcome without having to plug in all the numbers. I made sure this book wasn't filled with too much jargon or advanced notation. In fact, this book can be used if...1. You're just a lay person interested in learning how to "predict" the chances of events and gain deeper insight to the world around us2. You're a student who needs to learn about Bayes' Theorem quickly and easily3. You're a teacher or educator looking to advance or brush up on your existing knowledge of Bayes' Theorem I encourage you to download 'Bayes Theorem' so you can make more informed approximations of how events will play out. Plus, when you download "Bayes Theorem", you'll also discover: How to solve unobvious questions How to do your own genetic testing (find out if you're more prone to certain types of ailments) Why a smoker and non-smoker may have equal chances of developing chronic bronchitis How companies can use Bayes' Theorem to manipulate and spew propaganda What the chances are of someone becoming addicted to pills How to determine if a suspected criminal is more likely innocent or guilty The proper mathematical equations and notation to use-and guided explanations of each So download 'Bayes Theorem' today and enhance your statistical knowledge on the world and how things workDescription
Condition Guidelines
Books - New and Used
The following guidelines apply to books:
- New: A brand-new copy with cover and original protective wrapping intact. Books with markings of any kind on the cover or pages, books marked as "Bargain" or "Remainder," or with any other labels attached, may not be listed as New condition.
- Used - Good: All pages and cover are intact (including the dust cover, if applicable). Spine may show signs of wear. Pages may include limited notes and highlighting. May include "From the library of" labels. Shrink wrap, dust covers, or boxed set case may be missing. Item may be missing bundled media.
- Used - Acceptable: All pages and the cover are intact, but shrink wrap, dust covers, or boxed set case may be missing. Pages may include limited notes, highlighting, or minor water damage but the text is readable. Item may but the dust cover may be missing. Pages may include limited notes and highlighting, but the text cannot be obscured or unreadable.
Note: Some electronic material access codes are valid only for one user. For this reason, used books, including books listed in the Used – Like New condition, may not come with functional electronic material access codes.
Shipping & Delivery
Shipping Fees
- Stevens Books offers FREE SHIPPING everywhere in the United States for ALL non-book orders, and $3.99 for each book.
- Packages are shipped from Monday to Friday.
- No additional fees and charges.
Delivery Times
The usual time for processing an order is 24 hours (1 business day), but may vary depending on the availability of products ordered. This period excludes delivery times, which depend on your geographic location.
Estimated delivery times:
- Standard Shipping: 5-8 business days
- Expedited Shipping: 3-5 business days
Shipping method varies depending on what is being shipped.
Tracking
All orders are shipped with a tracking number. Once your order has left our warehouse, a confirmation e-mail with a tracking number will be sent to you. You will be able to track your package at all times.
Damaged Parcel
If your package has been delivered in a PO Box, please note that we are not responsible for any damage that may result (consequences of extreme temperatures, theft, etc.).
If you have any questions regarding shipping or want to know about the status of an order, please contact us or email to support@stevensbooks.com.
Returns & Refunds
You may return most items within 30 days of delivery for a full refund.
To be eligible for a return, your item must be unused and in the same condition that you received it. It must also be in the original packaging.
Several types of goods are exempt from being returned. Perishable goods such as food, flowers, newspapers or magazines cannot be returned. We also do not accept products that are intimate or sanitary goods, hazardous materials, or flammable liquids or gases.
Additional non-returnable items:
- Gift cards
- Downloadable software products
- Some health and personal care items
To complete your return, we require a tracking number, which shows the items which you already returned to us.
There are certain situations where only partial refunds are granted (if applicable)
- Book with obvious signs of use
- CD, DVD, VHS tape, software, video game, cassette tape, or vinyl record that has been opened
- Any item not in its original condition, is damaged or missing parts for reasons not due to our error
- Any item that is returned more than 30 days after delivery
Items returned to us as a result of our error will receive a full refund,some returns may be subject to a restocking fee of 7% of the total item price, please contact a customer care team member to see if your return is subject. Returns that arrived on time and were as described are subject to a restocking fee.
Items returned to us that were not the result of our error, including items returned to us due to an invalid or incomplete address, will be refunded the original item price less our standard restocking fees.
If the item is returned to us for any of the following reasons, a 15% restocking fee will be applied to your refund total and you will be asked to pay for return shipping:
- Item(s) no longer needed or wanted.
- Item(s) returned to us due to an invalid or incomplete address.
- Item(s) returned to us that were not a result of our error.
You should expect to receive your refund within four weeks of giving your package to the return shipper, however, in many cases you will receive a refund more quickly. This time period includes the transit time for us to receive your return from the shipper (5 to 10 business days), the time it takes us to process your return once we receive it (3 to 5 business days), and the time it takes your bank to process our refund request (5 to 10 business days).
If you need to return an item, please Contact Us with your order number and details about the product you would like to return. We will respond quickly with instructions for how to return items from your order.
Shipping Cost
We'll pay the return shipping costs if the return is a result of our error (you received an incorrect or defective item, etc.). In other cases, you will be responsible for paying for your own shipping costs for returning your item. Shipping costs are non-refundable. If you receive a refund, the cost of return shipping will be deducted from your refund.
Depending on where you live, the time it may take for your exchanged product to reach you, may vary.
If you are shipping an item over $75, you should consider using a trackable shipping service or purchasing shipping insurance. We don’t guarantee that we will receive your returned item.
Overview
Discover how to use Bayes' Theorem for real world applications like weather prediction, criminal investigation, blackjack games, and countless others! Picture this... You've been feeling sick for a couple days. You have a job interview on Thursday. Today is Monday, and you want to make sure you're healthy by Thursday...but you can't afford the time or cost of seeing a doctor before then. What are the odds of being up and running by Thursday? Do they get better if you've just started a new health kick? Or do they stay the same? Or perhaps... ...you notice your good ol' dog Spike walking clumsily and think he may be going blind. However you can't take him to a vet immediately...but you still want to know what the odds are that something's wrong with his eyes. So how do you determine this? These questions and countless others can be better answered when you apply Bayes' Theorem. To simplify it, Bayes' Theorem is the method by which you use to determine the probability of an event based on conditions that may be related to an event. So if you want to determine if your dog is sick and you know his breed is a golden retriever...well you could possibly use that information to assess the likely odds of him being sick! In this guide you'll see example after example of Bayes' Theorem being put into practice. You'll also see how each conclusion is arrived at with summation notation and basic equations. BUT...the purpose of this book isn't just to throw equations at you. It's to help you get an intuitive feel for the probability of an outcome without having to plug in all the numbers. I made sure this book wasn't filled with too much jargon or advanced notation. In fact, this book can be used if...1. You're just a lay person interested in learning how to "predict" the chances of events and gain deeper insight to the world around us2. You're a student who needs to learn about Bayes' Theorem quickly and easily3. You're a teacher or educator looking to advance or brush up on your existing knowledge of Bayes' Theorem I encourage you to download 'Bayes Theorem' so you can make more informed approximations of how events will play out. Plus, when you download "Bayes Theorem", you'll also discover: How to solve unobvious questions How to do your own genetic testing (find out if you're more prone to certain types of ailments) Why a smoker and non-smoker may have equal chances of developing chronic bronchitis How companies can use Bayes' Theorem to manipulate and spew propaganda What the chances are of someone becoming addicted to pills How to determine if a suspected criminal is more likely innocent or guilty The proper mathematical equations and notation to use-and guided explanations of each So download 'Bayes Theorem' today and enhance your statistical knowledge on the world and how things workDescription
Condition Guidelines
Books - New and Used
The following guidelines apply to books:
- New: A brand-new copy with cover and original protective wrapping intact. Books with markings of any kind on the cover or pages, books marked as "Bargain" or "Remainder," or with any other labels attached, may not be listed as New condition.
- Used - Good: All pages and cover are intact (including the dust cover, if applicable). Spine may show signs of wear. Pages may include limited notes and highlighting. May include "From the library of" labels. Shrink wrap, dust covers, or boxed set case may be missing. Item may be missing bundled media.
- Used - Acceptable: All pages and the cover are intact, but shrink wrap, dust covers, or boxed set case may be missing. Pages may include limited notes, highlighting, or minor water damage but the text is readable. Item may but the dust cover may be missing. Pages may include limited notes and highlighting, but the text cannot be obscured or unreadable.
Note: Some electronic material access codes are valid only for one user. For this reason, used books, including books listed in the Used – Like New condition, may not come with functional electronic material access codes.
Shipping & Delivery
Shipping Fees
- Stevens Books offers FREE SHIPPING everywhere in the United States for ALL non-book orders, and $3.99 for each book.
- Packages are shipped from Monday to Friday.
- No additional fees and charges.
Delivery Times
The usual time for processing an order is 24 hours (1 business day), but may vary depending on the availability of products ordered. This period excludes delivery times, which depend on your geographic location.
Estimated delivery times:
- Standard Shipping: 5-8 business days
- Expedited Shipping: 3-5 business days
Shipping method varies depending on what is being shipped.
Tracking
All orders are shipped with a tracking number. Once your order has left our warehouse, a confirmation e-mail with a tracking number will be sent to you. You will be able to track your package at all times.
Damaged Parcel
If your package has been delivered in a PO Box, please note that we are not responsible for any damage that may result (consequences of extreme temperatures, theft, etc.).
If you have any questions regarding shipping or want to know about the status of an order, please contact us or email to support@stevensbooks.com.
Returns & Refunds
You may return most items within 30 days of delivery for a full refund.
To be eligible for a return, your item must be unused and in the same condition that you received it. It must also be in the original packaging.
Several types of goods are exempt from being returned. Perishable goods such as food, flowers, newspapers or magazines cannot be returned. We also do not accept products that are intimate or sanitary goods, hazardous materials, or flammable liquids or gases.
Additional non-returnable items:
- Gift cards
- Downloadable software products
- Some health and personal care items
To complete your return, we require a tracking number, which shows the items which you already returned to us.
There are certain situations where only partial refunds are granted (if applicable)
- Book with obvious signs of use
- CD, DVD, VHS tape, software, video game, cassette tape, or vinyl record that has been opened
- Any item not in its original condition, is damaged or missing parts for reasons not due to our error
- Any item that is returned more than 30 days after delivery
Items returned to us as a result of our error will receive a full refund,some returns may be subject to a restocking fee of 7% of the total item price, please contact a customer care team member to see if your return is subject. Returns that arrived on time and were as described are subject to a restocking fee.
Items returned to us that were not the result of our error, including items returned to us due to an invalid or incomplete address, will be refunded the original item price less our standard restocking fees.
If the item is returned to us for any of the following reasons, a 15% restocking fee will be applied to your refund total and you will be asked to pay for return shipping:
- Item(s) no longer needed or wanted.
- Item(s) returned to us due to an invalid or incomplete address.
- Item(s) returned to us that were not a result of our error.
You should expect to receive your refund within four weeks of giving your package to the return shipper, however, in many cases you will receive a refund more quickly. This time period includes the transit time for us to receive your return from the shipper (5 to 10 business days), the time it takes us to process your return once we receive it (3 to 5 business days), and the time it takes your bank to process our refund request (5 to 10 business days).
If you need to return an item, please Contact Us with your order number and details about the product you would like to return. We will respond quickly with instructions for how to return items from your order.
Shipping Cost
We'll pay the return shipping costs if the return is a result of our error (you received an incorrect or defective item, etc.). In other cases, you will be responsible for paying for your own shipping costs for returning your item. Shipping costs are non-refundable. If you receive a refund, the cost of return shipping will be deducted from your refund.
Depending on where you live, the time it may take for your exchanged product to reach you, may vary.
If you are shipping an item over $75, you should consider using a trackable shipping service or purchasing shipping insurance. We don’t guarantee that we will receive your returned item.
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